THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.7%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.8%176 races · latest settled day: #1 2/7, top-3 6/7forensic read: #1 29.1% · top-3 61.2% (103)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
No confirmed early pace on the book, so this one may turn tactical. Winners here spend about 48% of their energy before the final two furlongs and quicken late. On the measured reads, LORD D'OR (GER) leads on 85, 28pts clear of SEVENKINGSMUSTDIE (IRE) — in form — though that figure was earned over a different trip. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is SEVENKINGSMUSTDIE (IRE) — a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes LORD D'OR (GER) the 51% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 9
LORD D'OR (GER)
OR · Oisin Murphy / Andrew Balding
MARKET 1.96 · the market rates it a 51% chance
85.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−figure earned over 8.0/7.9/7.0f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested here)The top rating in this field (85.0)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
SEVENKINGSMUSTDIE (IRE)
OR · Luke Catton / Alan King
MARKET 990 · the market rates it a 0% chance
57.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−Rated #2 in this field (57.0)Jockey goes well at this track (2.08x market expectation)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
MAKE A SPLASH (IRE)
OR · Sean Levey / Tom Ward
MARKET 510 · the market rates it a 0% chance
37FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−Rated #3 in this field (37)Race-fit — ran 12 days ago
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1LORD D'OR (GER)net +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, yard hot
2SEVENKINGSMUSTDIE (IRE)net +5figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), top-2 late speed today, yard positive in today’s setup, FormLab watch flag
3RHYTHMIC CHARGE (IRE)net +3market top-3, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. SEVENKINGSMUSTDIE (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge LORD D'OR (GER) lacks: flagged on our watch list.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (no confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 9 runners · stalls 1–9
123456789
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: LORD D'OR (GER) is 0/1 on softer ground · SEVENKINGSMUSTDIE (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground · MAKE A SPLASH (IRE) is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
SEVENKINGSMUSTDIE (IRE)HELD-UP48.9%105.2a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
CASTLEMONT (IRE)———-
FLAGRAISERHELD-UP53.1%90.7held up without the late gear (4th of 5 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
LORD D'OR (GER)MID47.0%108.4the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
RHYTHMIC CHARGE (IRE)———-
SERGEI BREEZEMID56.6%83.8held up without the late gear (5th of 5 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
TREBLE BASS———-
COOL GIRL (FR)———-
MAKE A SPLASH (IRE)HELD-UP49.7%101.6the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1LORD D'OR (GER)MID
DRAW 9 · OR · Oisin Murphy / Andrew Balding
MARKET 1.96 · the market rates it a 51% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
85.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 28pts clear of the next, in form; the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
85.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 85 · earned over 8.0/7.9/7.0f — never rated near today's distance (untested here)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 108.39% (strong late)
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Andrew Balding · 2427 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, at Newcastle, jockey_named P. J. McDonald, off a steady mark, dropping in trip
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦199/104919.0%1.1269/28824.0%1.22
Too few runners to read reliably
At Windsor (small sample)9/6015.0%0.652/1414.3%0.67
Can it do what today needs? Unproven at this trip — its 89 was earned OFF-TRIP and it has NEVER been rated at today's distance; no evidence it can hit the ~57.0 demand here
The rider
Oisin Murphy · last 14 days: 15/68· at Windsor: A/E 1.05 (n210)· with this yard: A/E 1.03 (n940)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 5
+0.30 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 5
+0.19s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 5
108.4%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 5
6.96 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
1 Jul 26Thirsk7fGd/Frm2ndTrue40.9 +0.91111.2+0.07
15 May 26York7fGood2ndSlow early39.7 +0.32110.1+0.09
6 Aug 25Kempton Park7fStd/Slow6thTrue37.6 -0.34103.9+0.42
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledslow2fledvery slow3fledvery slow4fledpar5fledfast6f+0.01fast7f+0.05very fast1m+0.02very fast
Timed runs 2025-08-06 to 2026-07-01. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
The top rating in this field (85.0)Rating earned over 8.0/7.9/7.0f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested at this distance)Improving fast — last run rated 85, 10pts above his recent average of 75.0NEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.8 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“dictated, pushed along 3f out, headed 2f out, stuck to task, clear of rest”
#2SEVENKINGSMUSTDIE (IRE)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 4 · OR · 10-2 · −3lb claim = 9-13 carried · Luke Catton / Alan King
MARKET 990 · the market rates it a 0% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−
57.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 28pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
57.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 57
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
20
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 105.22% (strong late)
Headgear
First-time hood
Recent form · last 2 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Alan King · 362 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 1-3 company18/11515.7%1.55/3315.2%1.61
On turf ✦25/18313.7%1.198/4717.0%1.25
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)15/10614.2%1.220/90.0%0.0
Over 9-10f trips14/8616.3%1.262/238.7%0.74
In fields of 8-1122/13216.7%1.433/329.4%0.76
Too few runners to read reliably
At Windsor (small sample)3/1127.3%1.771/520.0%1.69
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 57 at/around today's trip, clears the ~57.0 demand
The rider
Luke Catton · last 14 days: 0/1· at Windsor: A/E 2.08 (n13)· with this yard: A/E 1.71 (n13)
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 5
-0.21 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 37.4 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph5th of 5
+0.53s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 5
105.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 5
7.13 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Salisbury9fGood5thTrue36.9 +0.09100.8+0.71
8 Jun 26Windsor10fGd/Sft10thTrue37.8 -0.50109.6+0.35
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tom Ward · 426 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Windsor1/263.8%0.512/1414.3%1.53
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company4/676.0%0.870/90.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)15/14910.1%1.060/110.0%0.0
In fields of 8-1120/18710.7%1.222/434.7%0.61
Over 9-10f trips5/4910.2%1.01/128.3%0.71
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 8 to 14 days (small sample)3/339.1%0.770/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 43 is below the ~57.0 the race demands
The rider
Sean Levey · last 14 days: 4/33· at Windsor: A/E 0.76 (n119)· with this yard: A/E 0.98 (n146)
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 5
-0.41 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 36.8 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph4th of 5
+0.48s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 5
101.6%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 5
7.28 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-06-19 to 2026-07-08. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #3 in this field (37)Only 1 run at this distanceRace-fit — ran 12 days ago
LTO comment
“dwelt, ran green, always behind”
#4FLAGRAISERHELD-UP
DRAW 3 · OR · John Egan / Daisy Hitchins
MARKET 1000 · the market rates it a 0% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
10.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 75pts off the top, fit and race-ready; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
10.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 10 · earned over 7.1f — never rated near today's distance (untested here)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
17
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 90.68% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 4 · 7.1f · rated 10
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Daisy Hitchins · 67 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days3/2015.0%1.412/1118.2%1.77
In fields of 8-113/2512.0%1.441/714.3%1.76
On turf3/2711.1%0.91/1010.0%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)3/1915.8%2.180/40.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
In Class 1-3 company (small sample)0/20.0%0.00/20.0%0.0
At Windsor (small sample)0/10.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Over 9-10f trips (small sample)0/20.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 14 is below the ~57.0 the race demands
The rider
John Egan · last 14 days: 1/12· at Windsor: A/E 0.57 (n27)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 5
+0.72 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 42.5 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 5
+0.39s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 5
90.7%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 5
7.36 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-10-02 to 2025-10-02 · last timed run 291 days ago — the profile is out of date. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Returns from 291 days off
LTO comment
“in touch, pushed along halfway, soon beaten”
#8TREBLE BASS
DRAW 6 · OR · Ray Dawson / Roger Varian
MARKET 22 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
—FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Little measured either way — unexposed on our reads.
FormLab Figure
no rating yet (no rated runs on record)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
first run on record
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · no timed finishing data
Recent form · last 0 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Roger Varian · 1085 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: off a falsely-run (hidden) last run
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 9-10f trips22/14814.9%0.6513/4628.3%1.2
In Class 1-3 company52/36714.2%0.8815/7819.2%1.19
Too few runners to read reliably
At Windsor (small sample)6/2821.4%1.482/728.6%1.74
Can it do what today needs? no figure on record — unproven
The rider
Ray Dawson · last 14 days: 6/34· at Windsor: A/E 1.27 (n41)· with this yard: A/E 0.92 (n287)
Sectional profile
No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.
#9COOL GIRL (FR)
DRAW 7 · OR · David Egan / Charlie Johnston
MARKET 55 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−
—FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Little measured either way — unexposed on our reads.
FormLab Figure
no rating yet (no rated runs on record)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
first run on record
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · no timed finishing data
Recent form · last 0 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Charlie Johnston · 2319 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: with the mark MARK-FALLING3+
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company ✦41/5227.9%0.812/1547.8%0.72
Too few runners to read reliably
At Windsor (small sample)2/219.5%1.110/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? no figure on record — unproven
The rider
David Egan · last 14 days: 8/32· at Windsor: A/E 0.83 (n89)· with this yard: A/E 1.33 (n23)
Sectional profile
No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.