THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.7%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.8%176 races · latest settled day: #1 2/7, top-3 6/7forensic read: #1 29.1% · top-3 61.2% (103)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (89% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (74% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 48% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, CAPICHERA (IRE) leads on 87, 6pts clear of SUNSHINE STAR — dropping in class. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is SUNSHINE STAR — the quickest of today's early types, without over-committing — and finds plenty late. The market agrees — it makes CAPICHERA (IRE) the 45% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 6
CAPICHERA (IRE)
OR 85 · Kieran Shoemark / Ed Walker
MARKET 2.22 · the market rates it a 45% chance
87.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (87.0)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
SUNSHINE STAR
OR 84 · William Buick / John & Thady Gosden
MARKET 3.6 · the market rates it a 28% chance
81.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (81.0)Runs Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 7
MOLO DEL PALAZZO (USA)
OR 76 · Hector Crouch / Ralph Beckett
MARKET 19.5 · the market rates it a 5% chance
80.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−Rated #3 in this field (80.0)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1SUNSHINE STARnet +10figure top-2, drops in class, form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, quickest early type, top-2 speed vs its fields, runs the dominant winning style here
2CAPICHERA (IRE)net +8figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, yard hot
3VALKYRIE STORMnet +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, yard hot
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. SUNSHINE STAR is the one to beat it — an edge CAPICHERA (IRE) lacks: the quickest away of the early types.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
VALKYRIE STORM FIGURE #4
Eve Johnson Houghton's runners in Class 4-5 company win 16.3% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Eve Johnson Houghton's runners kept to the same class win 18.2% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (3 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE
19 similar races at WINDSOR, 9.5-10.5f, all-aged handicaps, Class 3-5, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (89% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (74% from the first three favourites). 16% won last time out, 26% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
37% 4yo
26% 5yo
21% 6yo+
Last ran
74% 15-45d
16% within 14d
5% 91d+
Market
42% 2nd favourite
26% 4th+ in the market
21% favourite
LTO form
58% unplaced last time
26% placed last time
16% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 7 runners · stalls 1–7
1234567
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–7).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: CAPICHERA (IRE) is 0/3 on softer ground · SUNSHINE STAR is unraced on softer ground · MOLO DEL PALAZZO (USA) is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
CAPICHERA (IRE)MID48.1%103.2a genuine turn of foot — 5th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
SUNSHINE STARPROMINENT46.9%109.2the quickest of today's early types, without over-committing — and finds plenty late
MYTHICAL BIRD (IRE)FRONT50.8%98.5just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late
DREAM CAMP (IRE)MID49.1%102.4solid late gains (6th of 7 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
CRYSTAL PIER (IRE)MID47.9%106.6a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
MOLO DEL PALAZZO (USA)MID47.2%108.2a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
VALKYRIE STORMPROMINENT47.6%106.0just behind the quickest early pair — presses, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
SUNSHINE STARPROMINENTtypically ~2.5 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.19s off the field’s best
MYTHICAL BIRD (IRE)FRONTtypically ~2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.11s off the field’s best
VALKYRIE STORMPROMINENTtypically ~1.3 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.11s off the field’s best
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1CAPICHERA (IRE)MID
DRAW 6 · OR 85 · Kieran Shoemark / Ed Walker
MARKET 2.22 · the market rates it a 45% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
87.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 6pts clear of the next, dropping in class; a genuine turn of foot — 5th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
87.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 87
Official mark (OR)
85 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 0.8s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent-closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.17% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ed Walker · 1109 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 8-16 odds, at this time of year (Q2)
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 9-10f trips20/9122.0%1.37/3420.6%1.42
On turf ✦89/59415.0%1.0338/21118.0%1.21
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=744/20421.6%1.0315/7819.2%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
At Windsor (small sample)4/2020.0%1.351/616.7%1.68
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
The rider
Kieran Shoemark · last 14 days: 3/34· at Windsor: A/E 1.23 (n104)· with this yard: A/E 1.03 (n318)
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 7
-0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 7
+0.20s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 7
103.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 7
7.21 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Pontefract8fGood1st—38.0 +0.1697.8+0.18—
19 May 26Nottingham8fGd/Sft2ndTrue38.5 +0.68103.1+0.17
4 Dec 25Chelmsford City8fSlow2ndTrue38.6 -0.38102.7+0.03
1 Nov 25Newmarket7fGood4thSlow early39.4 -0.64103.6+0.53
Timed runs 2025-11-01 to 2026-06-29. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (87.0)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“pressed leader, ridden over 2f out, led over 1f out, went clear”
#2SUNSHINE STARPROMINENT
DRAW 5 · OR 84 · William Buick / John & Thady Gosden
MARKET 3.6 · the market rates it a 28% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
81.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 6pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; the quickest of today's early types, without over-committing — and finds plenty late.
FormLab Figure
81.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 81
Official mark (OR)
84 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 2 tries · below market expectation (0.94)
Days since last run
46
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.6s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 109.24% (strong late)
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John & Thady Gosden · 1246 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)72/36519.7%0.9611/2152.4%2.0
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)18/8920.2%1.026/1833.3%1.5
At Windsor (small sample)13/3636.1%1.312/728.6%0.82
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 77 is below the ~80.0 the race demands
The rider
William Buick · last 14 days: 13/33· at Windsor: A/E 1.12 (n67)· with this yard: A/E 1.12 (n145)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 7
+0.98 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 7
+0.19s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 7
109.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 7
7.07 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
4 Jun 26Lingfield10fStd1stTrue40.7 +1.98112.2+0.27
10 Oct 25Kempton Park8fStd/Fast2ndTrue40.3 +1.54110.0+0.23
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.27fast2f+0.32slow3f+0.26slow4f+0.24very slow5f+0.28very slow6f+0.21par7f+0.08fast1mledfast1m 1fledfast1m 2fledvery fast
Timed runs 2025-10-10 to 2026-06-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (81.0)Only 2 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, led under 3f out, quickened clear early in straight, carried head bit awkwardly”
#3MOLO DEL PALAZZO (USA)MID
DRAW 7 · OR 76 · Hector Crouch / Ralph Beckett
MARKET 19.5 · the market rates it a 5% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
80.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 7pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
80.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
76 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
32
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.9s Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 108.25% (strong late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ralph Beckett · 1381 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)90/46719.3%0.9816/5927.1%1.36
In fields of <=7 ✦84/31826.4%1.0234/11429.8%1.16
Too few runners to read reliably
At Windsor (small sample)7/3718.9%0.842/1414.3%0.91
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
The rider
Hector Crouch · last 14 days: 3/26· at Windsor: A/E 1.05 (n91)· with this yard: A/E 1.1 (n496)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 7
-0.00 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 7
+0.28s
Slow away in 2 of 4 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed2nd of 7
108.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length6th of 7
6.84 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
18 Jun 26Lingfield10fGood2ndFast early41.1 -0.08113.6+0.10
26 May 26Leicester8fFirm3rdTrue38.9 -0.19104.6+0.38
12 May 26Lingfield8fStd6thTrue40.1 +0.19109.5+0.53
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.13fast2f+0.06fast3f+0.03fast4f+0.09slow5f+0.10very slow6f+0.17very slow7f+0.19very slow1m+0.21fast1m 1f+0.18very fast1m 2f+0.34very fast
Timed runs 2025-09-02 to 2026-06-18. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #3 in this field (80.0)Improving fast — last run rated 80, 12pts above his recent average of 67.3Only 1 run at this distance
LTO comment
“prominent, ridden approaching 2f out, kept on, no impression on winner”
#4VALKYRIE STORMPROMINENT
DRAW 3 · OR 76 · Charles Bishop / Eve Johnson Houghton
MARKET 16.5 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
78.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 9pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; just behind the quickest early pair — presses, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late.
FormLab Figure
78.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 81
Official mark (OR)
76 · last won off 73
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
37
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 105.97% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Eve Johnson Houghton · 1041 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: off a TFR-FALLING figure trend
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3) ✦38/36410.4%1.029/4122.0%1.43
On turf ✦64/57611.1%1.0626/17514.9%1.25
In Class 4-5 company ✦66/49713.3%1.1424/14716.3%1.19
In fields of <=7 ✦29/17916.2%1.0611/5221.2%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Windsor9/5815.5%1.581/214.8%0.56
Too few runners to read reliably
Over 9-10f trips (small sample)6/5710.5%0.963/1323.1%1.83
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 81 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
The rider
Charles Bishop · last 14 days: 2/34· at Windsor: A/E 0.94 (n122)· with this yard: A/E 0.9 (n658)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 7
+0.35 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 7
+0.11s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 7
106.0%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length7th of 7
6.66 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jun 26Sandown Park8fGood6thTrue37.5 -0.30102.1+0.21
23 May 26Windsor8fGd/Frm5th—40.7 -0.34105.6+0.03
9 May 26Nottingham8fGood1stSlow early40.0 +0.78109.3+0.23
Timed runs 2025-10-29 to 2026-06-13. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
23 May 26 · 8.1f · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 2nd, 6L behind
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-3.1L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (76 today vs 73)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayStable in form this week — 3 wins from 14 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-division, effort 2f out, not quicken final 1f”
#5CRYSTAL PIER (IRE)MID
DRAW 1 · OR 79 · Rossa Ryan / Ralph Beckett
MARKET 22 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
75FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 12pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
75 · ranked #5 here · career best 84
Official mark (OR)
79 · last won off 73
Record at today's distance
1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (2.72)
Days since last run
25
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.5s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races prominent
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ralph Beckett · 1381 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)90/46719.3%0.9816/5927.1%1.36
In fields of <=7 ✦84/31826.4%1.0234/11429.8%1.16
Too few runners to read reliably
At Windsor (small sample)7/3718.9%0.842/1414.3%0.91
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 84 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
The rider
Rossa Ryan · last 14 days: 14/65· at Windsor: A/E 1.16 (n194)· with this yard: A/E 1 (n664)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 7
+0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 7
+0.17s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 7
106.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 7
7.12 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
25 Jun 26Newmarket8fGd/Frm5thTrue39.9 +0.09103.4+0.48
23 May 26Windsor8fGd/Frm2nd—41.4 +0.39108.2+0.01
11 May 26Wolverhampton8fStd1stTrue39.1 +0.18107.0+0.03
Timed runs 2025-07-24 to 2026-06-25. · 3 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
23 May 26 · 8.1f · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 5th, 6L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+3.1L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
6lb above his last winning mark (79 today vs 73)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceLost roughly 2.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“waited with, shaken up over 2f out, weakened final 1f”
#6DREAM CAMP (IRE)MID
DRAW 4 · OR 82 · Oisin Murphy / Andrew Balding
MARKET 13 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
64.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 22.7pts off the top, dropping in class; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
64.3 · ranked #6 here · career best 78
Official mark (OR)
82 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
31
Sectional clock
Last time: 3.0s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.39% (holds late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Andrew Balding · 2427 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, at Newcastle, jockey_named P. J. McDonald, off a steady mark, dropping in trip
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦199/104919.0%1.1269/28824.0%1.22
In Class 4-5 company ✦184/96219.1%1.0355/22424.6%1.15
Too few runners to read reliably
At Windsor (small sample)9/6015.0%0.652/1414.3%0.67
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 78 is below the ~80.0 the race demands
The rider
Oisin Murphy · last 14 days: 15/68· at Windsor: A/E 1.05 (n210)· with this yard: A/E 1.03 (n940)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 7
+0.17 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 7
+0.42s
Slow away in 3 of 4 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed6th of 7
102.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 7
6.98 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
19 Jun 26Ascot8fGd/Frm25thTrue38.1 -0.7794.7+0.39
21 May 26Southwell8fStd1st—39.0 +0.62103.2-0.01
3 May 26Salisbury6fGd/Frm3rdTrue38.0 +0.00101.8+0.51
3 Dec 25Kempton Park7fStd5thTrue40.6 +0.81109.9+0.80
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-12-03 to 2026-06-19. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayLost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“chased leaders, weakened 3f out”
#7MYTHICAL BIRD (IRE)FRONT
DRAW 2 · OR 74 · Saffie Osborne / Hughie Morrison
MARKET 23 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−
60.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 26.7pts off the top, fit and race-ready; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
60.3 · ranked #7 here · career best 83
Official mark (OR)
74 · last won off 69
Record at today's distance
1 win from 9 tries · below market expectation (0.69)
Days since last run
11
Sectional clock
Last time: 3.0s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent and weakens
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Hughie Morrison · 425 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf20/19010.5%0.766/4015.0%1.42
Over 9-10f trips7/6710.4%0.813/2114.3%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Above their last winning mark7/6610.6%0.650/130.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)18/14312.6%0.890/100.0%0.0
In fields of <=714/8716.1%0.782/219.5%0.64
Too few runners to read reliably
At Windsor (small sample)1/273.7%0.331/333.3%2.5
Coming back after 8 to 14 days (small sample)3/358.6%0.810/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 85 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
The rider
Saffie Osborne · last 14 days: 4/35· at Windsor: A/E 1.05 (n135)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n4)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 7
+0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 7
+0.11s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 7
98.5%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 7
7.07 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
9 Jul 26Newbury8fGd/Frm10thTrue40.2 -0.3391.9—
12 Jun 26Sandown Park9fGood11thFast early37.9 +0.0092.3+0.04
25 May 26Leicester10fFirm3rdSlow early40.4 -0.27105.2+0.00
Timed runs 2025-10-02 to 2026-07-09. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (74 today vs 69)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 11 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Front — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits