THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.7%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.8%176 races · latest settled day: #1 2/7, top-3 6/7forensic read: #1 29.1% · top-3 61.2% (103)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
KONDRATIEV WAVE (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here typically raced recently (94% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (65% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 47% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, GLADIADORA (IRE) leads on 69, 1pts clear of SPIRIT OF BREEZE (IRE) — one of the two strongest finishers here. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is RIVER WHARFE — the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes GLADIADORA (IRE) the 32% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 8
GLADIADORA (IRE)
OR 62 · Saffie Osborne / Charlie Clover
MARKET 3.05 · the market rates it a 32% chance
69.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (69.0)Race-fit — ran 12 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
SPIRIT OF BREEZE (IRE)
OR 64 · David Egan / Gary & Josh Moore
MARKET 3.75 · the market rates it a 26% chance
68.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (68.0)Historically underestimated by the market
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 7
FLAG CARRIER (IRE)
OR 63 · Oisin Murphy / Brian Toomey
MARKET 8 · the market rates it a 12% chance
65FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (65)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1GLADIADORA (IRE)net +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, proven on the going, yard positive in today’s setup, FormLab watch flag
2SPIRIT OF BREEZE (IRE)net +7figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, proven at trip, yard hot
3RIVER WHARFEnet +6drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, proven at trip, proven on the going, yard positive in today’s setup − clock FADE
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. SPIRIT OF BREEZE (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge GLADIADORA (IRE) lacks: a yard in form.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
RIVER WHARFE FIGURE #6
Tony Carroll's runners in Class 6-7 company win 13.9% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Tony Carroll's runners dropping in class win 14.8% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
KONDRATIEV WAVE (IRE) FIGURE #7
Tony Carroll's runners in Class 6-7 company win 13.9% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Tony Carroll's runners kept to the same class win 13.9% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE
17 similar races at WINDSOR, 7.6-8.6f, all-aged handicaps, Class 5-7, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (94% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (65% from the first three favourites). 24% won last time out, 18% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
29% 6yo+
29% 4yo
24% 3yo
Last ran
53% 15-45d
41% within 14d
6% 91d+
Market
35% 4th+ in the market
35% favourite
24% 2nd favourite
LTO form
59% unplaced last time
24% won last time
18% placed last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 7 runners · stalls 1–8
12345678
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–8).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: GLADIADORA (IRE) is 0/4 on softer ground · SPIRIT OF BREEZE (IRE) is 2/4 on softer ground · FLAG CARRIER (IRE) is 0/2 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
SPIRIT OF BREEZE (IRE)MID50.3%100.7solid late gains (4th of 7 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
FLAG CARRIER (IRE)HELD-UP49.5%101.0the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
GLADIADORA (IRE)MID49.2%102.0the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
DEVIOUS DEVAN (IRE)MID49.5%98.1held up without the late gear (6th of 7 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
KONDRATIEV WAVE (IRE)PROMINENT50.9%97.8the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
FOOTSTEPINTHEWOODS (IRE)HELD-UP50.6%99.0one-paced late — 5th of 7 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
RIVER WHARFEHELD-UP48.6%105.5the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
KONDRATIEV WAVE (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.9 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
KONDRATIEV WAVE (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1GLADIADORA (IRE)MIDFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 8 · OR 62 · Saffie Osborne / Charlie Clover
MARKET 3.05 · the market rates it a 32% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−
69.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 1pts clear of the next, one of the two strongest finishers here; the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
69.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 71
Official mark (OR)
62 · last won off 60
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 19 tries · beats market expectation (1.07)
Days since last run
12
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.7s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent-closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.99% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Charlie Clover · 170 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days4/1723.5%1.084/1428.6%1.2
Above their last winning mark4/2615.4%0.798/3026.7%1.2
In Class 6-7 company ✦8/3125.8%1.289/3525.7%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)6/3915.4%0.991/137.7%0.33
On turf11/5420.4%1.36/4413.6%0.78
Too few runners to read reliably
At Windsor (small sample)0/50.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 71 at/around today's trip, clears the ~68.0 demand
The rider
Saffie Osborne · last 14 days: 4/35· at Windsor: A/E 1.05 (n135)· with this yard: A/E 2.28 (n12)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 7
+0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 7
+0.47s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 7
102.0%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 7
7.27 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
28 Mar 26Southwell7fStd1stTrue39.1 +0.22103.1+0.23
Timed runs 2026-03-28 to 2026-07-08. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
RIVER WHARFE · 1 meeting≈ 2.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
15 Dec 25 · 8f · Std/Slow — finished 2nd vs 6th, 2.25L ahead
FLAG CARRIER (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 12.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 Aug 25 · 8f · Good — finished 4th vs 2nd, 10.5L behind
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-8.8L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs DEVIOUS DEVAN (IRE) (read through QUEEN OF GOOD NEWS, TORALOU, REVICH, BORDERLINE MADNESS) ≈ +4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs KONDRATIEV WAVE (IRE) (read through LOUIE THE LEGEND, THAPA VC, TONAL, BLUE COLLAR LAD) ≈ +3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs SPIRIT OF BREEZE (IRE) (read through LOUIE THE LEGEND, FACT OR FABLE, BORN A REBEL, THAPA VC) ≈ +0.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (69.0)Lost roughly 3.4 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 12 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“dwelt”
#2SPIRIT OF BREEZE (IRE)MID
DRAW 3 · OR 64 · David Egan / Gary & Josh Moore
MARKET 3.75 · the market rates it a 26% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−
68.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 1pts off the top, a yard in form; solid late gains (4th of 7 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
68.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 72
Official mark (OR)
64 · last won off 62
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 7 tries · beats market expectation (1.96)
Days since last run
36
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.69% (holds late)
Headgear
Tongue strap · yard 10% with first-time gear (A/E 0.9)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Gary & Josh Moore · 792 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days34/31110.9%0.9418/8820.5%1.9
At this time of year (Q3)26/2968.8%0.746/2326.1%1.7
In Class 6-7 company30/22413.4%0.9915/8318.1%1.64
In fields of 8-1129/3159.2%0.915/11013.6%1.57
Above their last winning mark ✦17/11414.9%1.039/5217.3%1.16
Too few runners to read reliably
At Windsor (small sample)0/370.0%0.01/147.1%0.88
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 72 at/around today's trip, clears the ~68.0 demand
The rider
David Egan · last 14 days: 8/32· at Windsor: A/E 0.83 (n89)· with this yard: A/E 0.94 (n13)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 7
-0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 7
+0.27s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 7
100.7%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 7
7.26 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
14 Jun 26Salisbury6fGood3rdTrue39.6 -0.6798.9+0.10
4 Nov 25Lingfield7fStd9thFast early41.3 +0.0099.8+0.48
27 Oct 25Lingfield7fStd1stSlow early41.5 +0.20107.8+0.17
30 Sep 25Bath8fGd/Frm6thTrue40.2 -0.0494.7+0.44
14 Aug 25Salisbury6fGood1stTrue37.0 -0.08105.0+0.29
28 Jul 25Yarmouth7fGood5thTrue40.6 +0.0098.0+0.17
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-07-28 to 2026-06-14. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
27 Oct 25 · 7f · Std — finished 1st vs 4th, 2.1L ahead
RIVER WHARFE · 1 meeting≈ 2.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
27 Oct 25 · 7f · Std — finished 1st vs 5th, 2.15L ahead
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 2 rival(s) met (-0.6L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs DEVIOUS DEVAN (IRE) (read through MOONLIGHT BOMB, DAISY ROOTS) ≈ +5.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs FLAG CARRIER (IRE) (read through LOUIE THE LEGEND, HAVANA MOJITO, TEN CLUB, KING CABO) ≈ -3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs GLADIADORA (IRE) (read through LOUIE THE LEGEND, FACT OR FABLE, BORN A REBEL, THAPA VC) ≈ -0.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (68.0)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“chased leader, led over 2f out, edged left, headed final 1f, no extra”
#3FLAG CARRIER (IRE)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 7 · OR 63 · Oisin Murphy / Brian Toomey
MARKET 8 · the market rates it a 12% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
65FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 4pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; its sectional profile is out of date.
FormLab Figure
65 · ranked #3 here · career best 78
Official mark (OR)
63 · last won off 60
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 17 tries · beats market expectation (1.11)
Days since last run
259
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s) Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 101.01% (holds late)
Headgear
Blinkers
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 259 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Brian Toomey · 153 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark5/3613.9%1.431/812.5%1.72
In Class 6-7 company9/6314.3%1.172/1513.3%1.48
On turf6/5411.1%1.712/1315.4%1.44
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips5/756.7%0.60/130.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At Windsor (small sample)0/50.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Coming back after 180 days+ (small sample)0/20.0%0.00/20.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)3/456.7%0.790/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 78 at/around today's trip, clears the ~68.0 demand
The rider
Oisin Murphy · last 14 days: 15/68· at Windsor: A/E 1.05 (n210)· with this yard: A/E 1.59 (n4)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 7
+0.45 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 7
+0.57s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed3rd of 7
101.0%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 7
7.09 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
3 Nov 25Kempton Park8fStd6thTrue38.8 +0.81103.3+1.21
2 Oct 25Chelmsford City7fSlow4thTrue41.3 +1.17103.1+1.05
Timed runs 2025-07-24 to 2025-11-03 · last timed run 259 days ago — the profile is out of date. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
13 Aug 25 · 8f · Good — finished 2nd vs 4th, 10.5L ahead
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+4.4L adj, 4 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs DEVIOUS DEVAN (IRE) (read through HARBOUR VISION, DAISY ROOTS, BINT HAVANA GOLD, KING DAVID) ≈ -5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs SPIRIT OF BREEZE (IRE) (read through LOUIE THE LEGEND, HAVANA MOJITO, TEN CLUB, KING CABO) ≈ +3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs RIVER WHARFE (read through MBAPPE, JET PACKER, HARBOUR VISION, MANTON ROAD) ≈ -0.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (63 today vs 60)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (65)Lost roughly 5.4 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionReturns from 259 days offHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“very slowly away, rear, headway over 1f out, never on terms”
#4FOOTSTEPINTHEWOODS (IRE)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 4 · OR 61 · David Probert / Emma Lavelle
MARKET 9 · the market rates it a 11% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
62.7FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 6.3pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
62.7 · ranked #4 here · career best 65
Official mark (OR)
61 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
37
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.04% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Emma Lavelle · 128 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 8-118/5714.0%1.382/1315.4%1.41
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips4/2317.4%2.240/60.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days12/5920.3%1.621/147.1%0.45
Too few runners to read reliably
In Class 6-7 company (small sample)2/1711.8%0.870/10.0%0.0
At Windsor (small sample)0/100.0%0.00/20.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)6/3815.8%1.330/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 68 at/around today's trip, clears the ~68.0 demand
The rider
David Probert · last 14 days: 7/46· at Windsor: A/E 0.88 (n87)· with this yard: A/E 1.34 (n24)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 7
-0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 7
+0.39s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed5th of 7
99.0%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 7
7.38 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jun 26Bath8fGood6thTrue38.4 -0.34101.3+0.47
23 May 26Salisbury6fGood5th—37.9 -0.2098.4+0.25
4 May 26Windsor6fGd/Frm11thTrue39.7 +0.00100.8+0.43
18 Apr 26Newbury8fGood22ndTrue38.3 -0.3098.7+0.72
8 Nov 25Doncaster6fHeavy5thTrue36.5 -0.0195.0+0.07
24 Oct 25Newbury6fHeavy5thTrue36.4 +0.39100.0+0.40
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-10-24 to 2026-06-13. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Only 3 runs at this distanceLost roughly 2.1 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“rear, pushed along under 4f out, some late headway”
#5DEVIOUS DEVAN (IRE)MIDFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 5 · OR 58 · Lewis Edmunds / William Muir & Chris Grassick
MARKET 11 · the market rates it a 9% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−
61.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 8pts off the top, in form; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
61.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
58 · last won off 55
Record at today's distance
1 win from 14 tries · below market expectation (0.77)
Days since last run
12
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.2s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
William Muir & Chris Grassick · 473 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 8-1122/19311.4%1.084/449.1%1.25
At this time of year (Q3)12/1557.7%0.843/2313.0%1.24
In Class 6-7 company7/808.8%0.554/3112.9%1.21
Over 7-8f trips16/1679.6%1.025/568.9%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Above their last winning mark14/8516.5%1.311/323.1%0.27
Coming back after 8 to 14 days10/5518.2%1.31/156.7%0.64
Too few runners to read reliably
At Windsor (small sample)0/250.0%0.00/80.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~68.0 demand
The rider
Lewis Edmunds · last 14 days: 3/30· at Windsor: A/E 0.31 (n87)· with this yard: A/E 1.08 (n376)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 7
+0.20 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 7
+0.31s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed6th of 7
98.1%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 7
7.36 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 Mar 26Chelmsford City7fStd8thTrue41.4 +0.32100.1+0.60
10 Oct 25Kempton Park8fStd/Fast7thTrue39.1 -0.37103.3+0.00
Timed runs 2025-10-10 to 2026-07-08. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs SPIRIT OF BREEZE (IRE) (read through MOONLIGHT BOMB, DAISY ROOTS) ≈ -5.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs FLAG CARRIER (IRE) (read through HARBOUR VISION, DAISY ROOTS, BINT HAVANA GOLD, KING DAVID) ≈ +5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs GLADIADORA (IRE) (read through QUEEN OF GOOD NEWS, TORALOU, REVICH, BORDERLINE MADNESS) ≈ -4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs KONDRATIEV WAVE (IRE) (read through BORDERLINE MADNESS, MY BOY HARRY, UNION ISLAND, BEAU JARDINE) ≈ -2.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (58 today vs 55)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayLost roughly 2.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 12 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“mid-division, pushed along over 2f out, headway soon after, weakened final 1f”
#6RIVER WHARFEHELD-UP
DRAW 1 · OR 52 · Molly Gunn / Tony Carroll
MARKET 44 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−
52.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 17pts off the top, dropping in class; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
52.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 67
Official mark (OR)
52 · last won off 54
Record at today's distance
7 wins from 48 tries · beats market expectation (1.45)
Days since last run
13
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s) Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 105.53% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 28 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tony Carroll · 2385 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Signature angle: at Bath, above their last winning mark, at this time of year (Q2), on turf, off a TFR-FALLING figure trend, with the mark MARK-FLAT, with a CLAIM-7 claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Windsor11/8413.1%1.5410/3528.6%2.24
Below their last winning mark11/1656.7%0.6719/9919.2%1.51
On turf ✦97/70713.7%1.247/22920.5%1.43
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 67 is below the ~68.0 the race demands
The rider
Molly Gunn · last 14 days: 0/1· at Windsor: A/E 0 (n8)· with this yard: A/E 1.2 (n181)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 7
+0.21 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 7
+0.22s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 7
105.5%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length7th of 7
6.88 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
7 Jul 26Wolverhampton8fStd8thTrue38.3 -0.09107.5—
25 Jun 26Nottingham8.3fGd/Frm6thTrue40.2 +0.24105.3+0.16
Timed runs 2026-03-11 to 2026-07-07. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
15 Dec 25 · 8f · Std/Slow — finished 6th vs 2nd, 2.25L behind
SPIRIT OF BREEZE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
27 Oct 25 · 7f · Std — finished 5th vs 1st, 2.15L behind
Read through a common rival
vs DEVIOUS DEVAN (IRE) (read through MERAPI, THE UBERMENSCH, AUBURN AVENUE, EAGLE DAY) ≈ +1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs FLAG CARRIER (IRE) (read through MBAPPE, JET PACKER, HARBOUR VISION, MANTON ROAD) ≈ +0.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
2lb below his last winning mark (52 today vs 54)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (48 tries, beats market expectation at 1.45)Stable in form this week — 3 wins from 19 runsHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“dropped out, no impression”
#7KONDRATIEV WAVE (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 6 · OR 56 · Billy Loughnane / Tony Carroll
MARKET 15.5 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
51FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 18pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
51 · ranked #7 here · career best 69
Official mark (OR)
56 · last won off 53
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 43 tries · below market expectation (0.56)
Days since last run
13
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.2s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 26 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tony Carroll · 2385 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Signature angle: at Bath, above their last winning mark, at this time of year (Q2), on turf, off a TFR-FALLING figure trend, with the mark MARK-FLAT, with a CLAIM-7 claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Windsor11/8413.1%1.5410/3528.6%2.24
On turf ✦97/70713.7%1.247/22920.5%1.43
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 69 at/around today's trip, clears the ~68.0 demand
The rider
Billy Loughnane · last 14 days: 15/63· at Windsor: A/E 1.03 (n98)· with this yard: A/E 1.19 (n30)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 7
+0.00 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 7
+0.05s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 7
97.8%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 7
7.36 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-01-15 to 2026-07-07. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
RIVER WHARFE · 3 meetings≈ 1.4L ahead on today's terms · confirms
27 Oct 25 · 7f · Std — finished 4th vs 5th, 0.05L ahead
FLAG CARRIER (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 1.0L ahead on today's terms · confirms
31 Aug 25 · 8f · Good — finished 6th vs 8th, 1.75L ahead
SPIRIT OF BREEZE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
27 Oct 25 · 7f · Std — finished 4th vs 1st, 2.1L behind
Read through a common rival
vs GLADIADORA (IRE) (read through LOUIE THE LEGEND, THAPA VC, TONAL, BLUE COLLAR LAD) ≈ -3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs DEVIOUS DEVAN (IRE) (read through BORDERLINE MADNESS, MY BOY HARRY, UNION ISLAND, BEAU JARDINE) ≈ +2.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (56 today vs 53)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayStable in form this week — 3 wins from 19 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits